Monday, 20 April 2009

F1 2009 Super Season Grid - post China

It's time for my second Super Season Grid and with Sebastien Vettel and Red Bull taking their first victory together, with teammate Mark Webber completing a great day for the Milton Keynes team, it's the chance to see whether the festivities has shaken up the order of the field a bit. The wet weather on the Sunday meant lap times on race day were some 20 seconds slower than those in the sunny qualifying, but nevertheless it was Barrichello who went away the fastest man of the weekend overall with an average lap of 1'39.637. So let's take a look at how the Super Season Grid lines up as we go into Bahrain:
  1. Jenson Button - 1'34.068 - +0.000 Non-mover
  2. Nico Rosberg - 1'34.099 - +0.031 +5 places
  3. Rubens Barrichello - 1'34.187 - +0.119 -1 place
  4. Mark Webber - 1'34.371 - +0.303 +1 place
  5. Timo Glock - 1'34.670 - +0.602 +1 place
  6. Heikki Kovalainen - 1'34.678 - +0.610 +7 places
  7. Sebastien Vettel - 1'34.729 - +0.661 -3 places
  8. Kimi Raikkonen - 1'34.754 - +0.686 +1 place
  9. Jarno Trulli - 1'34.795 -+0.727 -6 places
  10. Kazuki Nakajima - 1'34.802 - +0.734 +2 places
  11. Robert Kubica - 1'34.824 - +0.756 -3 places
  12. Felipe Massa - 1'34.858 - +0.790 +2 places
  13. Lewis Hamilton - 1'34.931 - +0.863 +2 places
  14. Nick Heidfeld - 1'35.005 - +0.937 -4 places
  15. Fernando Alonso - 1'35.053 - +0.985 -4 places
  16. Sebastien Buemi - 1'35.269 - +1.201 +3 places
  17. Adrian Sutil - 1'35.304 - +1.236 +3 places
  18. Sebastien Bourdais - 1'35.364 - +1.296 -1 place
  19. Nelson Piquet - 1'35.516 - +1.448 -3 places
  20. Giancarlo Fisichella - 1'35.605 - +1.538 -2 places
What a shake up! I was expecting a few position changes, but not as many as that! Anyway, let's look at the facts. Button is still the fastest man in the field bar his 3rd place yesterday and 5th place grid slot in qualifying. It seems his performances in practice were enough to help him stay at the head of this grid. Behind, it really is all change. No-one other than Jenson is in the same place they were after Sepang. It's Rosberg who is now just behind Button by about 3 hundreths ahead of Barrichello. Nico becomes the meat in a Brawn sandwich here. Mind you, he has jumped an impressive 5 places, but not nearly as impressive as Kovalainen. After actually managing to complete a racing lap on Sunday, his weekend's running has seen him shoot a whopping 7 places up to 6th. Brawn, Williams, Red Bull and Toyota are the only teams with both cars in the top 10, while Kovi and fellow Finn Raikkonen make up the numbers.

Biggest fallers outside of the 10 are Heidfeld and Alonso respectively. Even Fernando's super-light special in qualifying to get him on the front row doesn't save him from sliding to 15th, while Nick was quite simply nowhere the whole time. The driver who dropped the most was Trulli who, despite staying in the top 10, goes from 3rd to 9th. Other notable climbers are Sutil, who hauled himself off the bottom to 17th as teammate Fisichella takes up that uncreditable honour, and both Massa and Hamilton who moved up 2 slots each.

OK, so there's the grid - but we're not stopping there. I've also compiled a field spread for the teams as well. By taking the fastest time set by each car, regardless of driver, I can look at which team is on paper the fastest and who's lounging around at the back making up the numbers. I did this last year for the 2008 season and it proved that the Ferrari was overall fastest over the entire season, but only just with McLaren just a fraction behind. So, after 3 rounds, how does it look now? Well I have some average lap times for every team so let's take a look, shall we?:
  1. Brawn GP - 1'31.357 +0.000
  2. Red Bull Racing - 1'31.491 +0.134
  3. Toyota - 1'31.633 +0.277
  4. Williams - 1'31.826 +0.470
  5. Ferrari - 1'31.877 +0.520
  6. BMW - 1'31.896 +0.540
  7. Renault - 1'32.038 +0.681
  8. McLaren - 1'32.124 +0.767
  9. Toro Rosso - 1'32.633 +1.276
  10. Force India - 1'33.138 +1.781
Obvious who the fastest team on average is, isn't it? But with that great performance all-round, it's Red Bull who are now their main threat. The RB5 is an extremely capable chassis, designed by the great Adrian Newey, and with the man himself electing to say in England to work on a new double diffuser for the car, one has to suspect Brawn are going to be looking at them a lot more closely from now on. They know they're a threat, but if RBR manage to really start putting the pressure on in the next couple of races, especially when the circus begins its European season in Barcelona in less than 3 weeks time, it's going to be a battle royale. Right now, it's these 2 teams that look to be heading for the championship, with Toyota trundling along in the background in 3rd.

Behind, Williams is heading the midfield of sorts, but what really surprises me is behind BMW in 5th is Ferrari. Ferrari? FERRARI?! Yes, believe it or not, the F60 has been, on average so far, faster than Renault and McLaren. Yet, no points and 3 DNFs between Kimi and Felipe. I'm shocked at that for one. As for Macca, the "lie-gate" scandal's taking it's toll, and despite a double diffuser and new front wing, it hasn't help that much according to the averages. But then again, the dismal start they had in Australia and Malaysia is the cause of that. As ever, behind them are Toro Rosso and Force India staking claim as backmarkers already. I personally hope Mallya's team does make some progress up the pack. As I've said a few times already, it's the race where it's stronger and more consistent. Sutil has proven that in all 3 races, but I am still feeling sad for him after a cruel twist of fate sent him aquaplaining into the tyres and retirement just 6 laps from his and FI's first points finish. It was Monaco '08 all over again - except, without a Ferrari losing it and thumping him in the rear.

Well I'll wrap it up now. It seems these first 3 flyaways have really been shaking the order up, and if the rest of the season is anything to go by, then it's going to be a real barnstormer. So, goodbye for now, thanks for reading and look out for another Super Season Grid after the Bahrain GP coming up this weekend.

Friday, 10 April 2009

F1 2009 Super Season Spread - Post Malaysia

Starting from post Malaysia, I will be assessing the current grid and just how close or how spread out all 20 drivers are in relation to each other, on average. By taking an average of the fastest lap times of each driver over both race weekends so far, I was able to see who are the front runners, who are the midfield battlers and who seems to be struggling at the back. Think of it as a super qualfying session expanding over the entire season. So without further ado, here is the grid as it stands after Malaysia:
  1. Button - 1'29.320 +0.000
  2. Barrichello - 1'29.585 +0.266
  3. Trulli - 1'29.628 +0.308
  4. Vettel - 1'29.699 +0.379
  5. Webber - 1'29.732 +0.412
  6. Glock - 1'29.770 +0.450
  7. Rosberg - 1'29.790 +0.470
  8. Kubica - 1'29.857 +0.537
  9. Raikkonen - 1'29.918 +0.599
  10. Heidfeld - 1'30.137 +0.817
  11. Alonso - 1'30.156 +0.836
  12. Nakajima - 1'30.198 +0.878
  13. Kovalainen - 1'30.375 +1.055
  14. Massa - 1'30.481 +1.161
  15. Hamilton - 1'30.680 +1.360
  16. Piquet - 1'31.153 +1.833
  17. Bourdais - 1'31.198 +1.878
  18. Fisichella - 1'31.293 +1.973
  19. Buemi - 1'31.305 +1.986
  20. Sutil - 1'31.347 +2.027

Brawn are clearly the fastest of the field with Button top of the pack, Rubens backing him up. Behind it's a scrap for best of the rest of the frontrunners with both Toyotas, Red Bulls, Rosberg, Kubica and Raikkonen covered by around 3 tenths. Next, it's another half a second covering 10th to 15th with Heidfeld seemingly heading the "midfield" despite his second place in Malaysia. Both McLarens and Massa are somewhat of a surprise in here but it's no secret both the MP4-24 and F60 aren't up to scratch yet. The backmarkers are the 5 drivers who have filled the bottom of Q1 on both race weekends with Piquet, Toro Rosso and Force India claiming the rear of the grid as their own for now.

That's all from the Super Season Grid for now, but look out for the next one after the Chinese GP. Take care now!

A Force to be reckoned with, perhaps?

To me, one of the biggest leaps in terms of techincal advances has to be Force India. Say what you will but I think that while they're still considered the backmarkers of the field somewhat, they do have an ace up their sleeve in the form of that partnership with McLaren and Mercedes. The effects of it aren't really evident at the moment but I'm sure that behind the doors of Vijay Mallya's outfit at Silverstone there is some Woking magic being waved on the VJM02.

The team has certainly come a long way and been on quite a journey since Eddie Jordan cast his eyes on his cars rolling out of the garages in Phoenix, Arizona some 18 years ago now. From there they've won 4 races and changed ownership and name 3 times, from Jordan to Midland to Spyker and finally Force India as we now know it. But right now, they are far from the race-winning form that some people might have thought possible with the influence of Ron Dennis and McLaren alongside them. Oh sure, it's going to take something pretty special for them to taste the sweet nectar of success for the first time but with the right resources and some good know-how, it can be done. Mallya himself still believes an FIF1 on the podium at the inaugural Indian Grand Prix is achieveable. People can dream of course, and what's wrong with that? But somehow it does seem a little ambitious. Give them credit, this incarnation of the team's championship challenger is strides better than 2008's, which saw them firmly at the rear of the pack following Super Aguri's tragic demise prior to the Turkish Grand Prix.

Adrian Sutil has recently said it himself that the improvements to the car will come eventually and probably within the next few races. He says there is potential in the package they have, but one quote from the story stands out for me more than anything else contained in it:

"It's a difficult situation because there was not much testing as we built
the car in about 120 days, so it's hard to pick up."

4 months? 4 months?! Not even McLaren leave that amount of time to make their car. In fact at the time they launched the MP4-24 they were already some 2 months into design for the 2010 machine. One can't help but wonder why they didn't start working on it in 2008. Honda knew their season would be useless and rightly focused on '09 and look where their successors Brawn GP are now - topping both championship tables with Button on 2 race wins from the first 2 rounds. So why didn't the Force do this as well? Surely they must have known their car wasn't one to get them podiums or victories, so changing focus to this season would have been a logical step. Look at what it's done for Toyota, Williams and in some ways BMW.

I can see these guys scoring a few points but probably not regularly just yet. From what I've seen so far the car is lacking pace in qualifying which is why it hasn't made Q2 just yet, despite being fairly close on both occasions. In terms of race pace and reliability it's certainly quicker than a year ago and a heck of a lot more reliable. I blame the Ferrari engine for their dismal 2008. As I briefly touched on in my post about Maranello yesterday, the Mercedes-Benz unit is rock solid and very powerful, the best in the field. Sutil himself was close to scoring FI's first point in Melbourne with 9th place. This means the car seems consistent and has better longevity. While the pace isn't quite there, it's only a matter of time before that McLaren techincal wizardry shines through and enables this team to live up to one half of its name - a real Force.

Thursday, 9 April 2009

Prancing Horse is falling at the first hurdles

In light of the new rules ripping up the original form book in Formula 1 and creating a brand spanking new one, it's clear to see that the teams that were considered the front runners and championship contenders last season have pretty much fallen from grace and found themselves dangerously close to the latter end of the midfield. McLaren have already admitted their car isn't up to scratch, but what of Ferrari?

Their start to what has so far been a thrilling 2009 season has been significantly less so. The proof is in the results - 2 races, 2 DNFs, 0 points. Massa and Raikkonen have had to sit and watch while the likes of Toyota, Williams, Red Bull and of course not forgetting Brawn GP have taken up the mantle as the new "Big 4" at the front with the ex-Honda squad leading the way with 2 victories. Looking at their rivals, it seems BMW are the ones coping with the new regulations the best. Already they've proved their car can run at the front given the right time and place and in some cases the right tyre compound. As for Renault, it's clear that their late season for from 2008 has vanished and while Alonso's getaway in Malaysia was simply astounding, it was down to his skills as a double world champion alone to hold off the chasing pack behind him along with the use of KERS as an aid. The car just simply is not up to scratch.

So what of the boys from Maranello? Why is it the first team to launch their 2009 contender finds themselves with nothing to show for their hard efforts over the winter after just 2 races? There's no denying they have the talent when it comes to personnel. Raikkonen is a world champion while Massa was one - for about 30 seconds. They have a 7 times world champion as an adviser and Stefano Domenicalli at the helm, someone who has worked with the team for over 20 years. I know for a fact he was Ferrari's commercial manager before being promoted to a more senior role. So if it's not the team it must be the car.

Reliability hasn't been something Ferrari have been able to lean on these past couple of seasons. It always seems like their cars have a tendancy of failing at the most inconvenient times. Suzuka 2006, Nurburgring 2007 and Hungary 2008 are 3 clear cases in point. While it could be said the Ferrari engine has been the most powerful, it's not the complete package that enables both the factory team and those that are customers to push on. The Mercedes-Benz unit is touted as the best all-round unit, which is probably why Force India and Brawn are partner and customer respectively. The trend has unfortunately continued for 2009. In Australia Massa had to park the car due to suspension problems while Raikkonen seemingly gave up the ghost sometime after a rather light but possible telltale spin into the wall which may have damaged the differential, the eventual cause of Kimi's DNF there. More car trouble arose for the Finn on Friday at Sepang when his KERS system's batteries caught fire and began to melt, causing the cockpit to fill with smoke and Kimi having to leap from his car rather hurridly. During the stoppage on the Sunday due to the heavy downpours, Ferrari themselves also revealed that had the race been scheduled to restart, there was a possibility they would have to retire Raikkonen after water was rumoured to have leaked into the car and caused internal damage.

So is it just a case of being too slow, or is it a lack of precision and common sense? Ferrari were the first to launch their car, as I've already mentioned earlier, but was this a mistake? We've seen that the likes of Red Bull and Brawn decided to work on their cars until the very last minute to try to exploit the rules as best as possible and for both of them it has paid off. There is always a gamble to take and a decision to make for all the teams when producing a car for a new season. Launching early means more track time at the risk of development work in the design studio while going late produces the opposite. From what we saw in winter testing, Ferrari virtually made no aerodynamic progress on their car whatsoever, or at least nothing significant that I could see anyway. So if they've launched early but not developed the car further to make it as fast as possible, what on earth have they been doing? Probably sat back sinking red wine and having extraordinarily long lunches, if you ask me.

It seems their trip to Bahrain hasn't done their car's pace or reliability any good whatsoever, and if it had, it wasn't as predominant as Toyota's and BMW's, and that is evident in their pace in the first 2 races. While they did top the time sheets on a couple of occasions out in the desert, it was fair to say they were not the dominant team there. Toyota had made huge steps to ensure the speed and reliability were up to scratch and the times showed that in evidence. Ferrari's mileage there was nothing compared to the Japanese team's. Glock and Trulli managed a total of approx. 4 race distances worth of laps in just 2 days, while the red cars didn't manage nearly as many.

Another factor could be their loss of focus on this season. If you'll quite clearly remember, they were fighting with McLaren for both championships last season while everyone else was clearly thinking of 2009 at that stage. BMW admittingly gave up on development of their 2008, but at a cost of Kubica losing out on a shot at the title. Honda, when they weren't pulling out of the sport, talked of nothing but '09 at their '08 launch, which made it clear they had no interest in succeeding that time around. Renault even reported they were done with it and decided it was time to switch focus, though that might have changed when Alonso eventually got into his stride with the R28. This may be the very reason why the former frontrunners are struggling. Preoccupied with trying to succed in 2008, they hadn't put enough attention into the new rules and only now are they paying for it in bad results and pace.

Ferrari seem to be pinning their hopes on the 3 teams running the controversial diffusers - Brawn, Williams and Toyota - being found illegal. But with the parts in question already being declared legal twice over by the FIA, it would seem stupid to change their minds. Team prinicipal Luca di Montezemelo has said it could cost Ferrari somewhere in the region of $20million dollars to implement such a diffuser onto their cars. Whether this is true or just an exagerrated figure, you can see what he means by it. Putting a new diffuser onto the car means a complete redesign of the underside. But with the world's economy not in the best shape and the FIA committed to reducing costs, you wouldn't have thought a team like Ferrari would be able to just use up money like that just to make their car that little bit faster. Raikkonen has said it himself that the outcome of this hearing at the FIA's Court of Appeal will be a deciding factor in this season's championship.

Perhaps Maranello is feeling the pressure right now. Their decision to run Kimi on wet tyres on the virtually dry track in Malaysia, despite the overhanging black clouds, proved ridiculous and somewhat comical. His laptimes fell dramatically as the tyres were torn to shreds and when the rain finally did come down, Raikkonen could clearly be heard on the radio saying "My tyres are completely destroyed". Right now, this is their worst start to a season since 1992, in which their car from that year has been classified by Autosport as one of the worst ever. Seems like at the moment, it's back to the good ol' days of comedy Ferrari, when the Italians thought they were doing something right when in reality, they're getting it very, very wrong.